A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
